Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
