Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
